Public School Student Enrollment of Northern Virginia Overview
Northern Virginia experienced sustained public school enrollment growth from 2004 through 2019, increasing from 315,898 students to a peak of 423,670. Since 2019, enrollment has declined in four of the past six years, including the most recent school year. Student enrollment in 2025 totaled 405,457. Note, the annual enrollment figures reflect September 30th of each year.
Key Highlights
-
Declining Student to Total Population Share: Since 2019, both total enrollment and the student share of the population have fallen. The student share declined from 16.7% in 2019 to a low of 15.8% in 2024. The 2025 share is currently unavailable, but will be available in mid-2026 when population data for 2025 is released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
-
Multiple Contributing Factors: Recent declines in public school enrollment reflect a combination of factors, including declining births and birth rates, an aging population, accelerated out-migration of families due to housing costs, and elevation participation in home-schooling and private education options post-COVID 19 pandemic.
-
Generational Transition: Public school enrollment trends closely track regional birth patterns, typically with a five-year lag. Births and birth rates in Northern Virginia have declined steadily since 2007, resulting in progressively smaller elementary school enrollment since 2013. Larger pre-2013 cohorts that supported enrollment growth are graduating and being replaced by smaller student populations, making continued enrollment decline increasingly likely.
Future Growth and Planning
Northern Virginia is undergoing a generational transition in its student population. The larger student populations that entered school prior to 2013 and sustained growth through the 2010s are now graduating from the school system, while smaller student populations advance through each grade. Continued enrollment declines are increasingly likely over the next five to ten years.
In the longer term, Northern Virginia is projected to have substantial population growth. The region's population exceeded 2.60 million in 2024 and is forecast to surpass 3 million by 2040, according to the NVRC Demographic and Economic Fact Sheet. However, aging of the population and declining birth rates are reducing the number of school-age children entering the public school system. In addition, higher housing costs and other economic pressures are contributing to slow in-migration of families and prompting families to move out of the region. These factors are expected to result in overall stagnation or declines in student enrollment for the region, but specific areas of the region with large amounts of residential development will have increased enrollment.
In summary, a multitude of variables alter student enrollment trends, including new development, transfers to and from private schools, in- and out-migration rates, and size and composition of families in existing housing stock. With growth and demographic shifts comes challenges in maintaining the high quality of education and school facilities in the region. Ensuring the continued excellence of education necessitates strategic planning and the acquisition of land or facilities for future school development, which has become increasingly complex in the region due to the limited supply of available land.